No Till Notes: 'Potential'

I sat through two speaker presentations last winter where regional meteorologists gave their predictions for the weather outlook for our area for this growing season. One meteorologist was Brian Bledsoe, who resides in Colorado Springs, Col. Brian gave his presentation at the “No till On the Plains” winter conference in Salina, Kan.

The other meteorologist was our own Don Day, who lives in Cheyenne, Wyo. Don spoke at our Panhandle No till Partnership winter conference in Gering. Don is on many local radio station broadcasts and gives weather reports daily for this area. Each of these gentlemen predicted we would have a good chance of above normal precipitation in our region for the 2015 growing season.

As of April 15, I thought they had missed their forecasts. We were getting to the point where talk of impending drought was getting to be daily conversation. Then the storm of the spring hit our region with a tremendous amount of moisture over a large part of the region.

On our farm we received 2.15 inches of rain over the last few days. Many producers I have talked to around the region received as much or more than we did. It appears the southern and central Panhandle fared better than the northern Panhandle in total precipitation from this storm.

I like to keep track of precipitation and compare yearly precipitation with yields on the various crops we produce on our farm. I have found that the moisture received during the fallow periods of the growing season can give you a pretty good indication of the potential yields for the crops we have planted.

The University of Nebraska has determined that 6 inches of precipitation are required for the vegetative growth of winter wheat. For each inch of rain received after the initial 6 inches for vegetative growth winter wheat will yield an additional six bushels of yield for each inch of precipitation.

For winter wheat yields, I use the total precipitation received from the time our field peas begin to dry down for harvest, which is around the first of July, till the following July when the winter wheat begins to dry down and has finished grain fill. This total precipitation amount will give me a pretty good idea of the potential yield of the winter wheat crop provided the winter wheat hasn’t suffered any outside damage from winter kill, disease, insect infestation or hail.

We are in good shape after this last storm to have the potential for very good wheat yields this year provided we receive normal precipitation from now until the wheat has reached maturity. According to my record keeping, we have received 10.54 inches of precipitation since July of 2014. The majority of this moisture came in September of last year, some winter snowfall, and this past storm.

If we receive normal rainfall from here on out we will add an additional 6.25 inches of precipitation that will give us a total of 16.79 inches. If we take off 6 inches of precipitation for vegetative growth, this leaves us with 10.79 inches for grain production. Figuring six bushels of yield for each inch of precipitation, our potential yield for this year’s crop would be 64.74 bushels per acre.

I think this potential yield of 64.74 bushels per acre is attainable provided other factors in winter wheat production don’t interfere with this potential yield. We all know of poor soils in some areas of our farm that won’t yield this well regardless of precipitation or fertility. We will also have to factor in the wheat stem saw fly’s potential damage. There are also potential disease problems that can occur during high moisture, high humidity periods during the growing season.

In any case, we are all thankful for the moisture this past storm has given to us. A spring storm of this magnitude really improves the outlook for the potential yields of our cool season crops. Next week, I’ll look at the potential yield for the yellow field pea crop that has just been planted this spring here in the Panhandle.